WHAT IF (separated from Whispers of North)

[Hank Jarrett]

Re: Whispers of the North

And that's why the new owners need to move forward with their eyes WIDE open and we need to be ready to tell them what we will pay for and how much we can pay. When WE were talking about buying Taylorcraft some of the big assumptions we had were;
1. The Foundation would own the rights
2. We would have no marketing costs
3. We would have no salaries
4. We would have no formal "factory" at the start
5. We would make parts to start and not build airplanes until there was a buyer in hand
6. (THE BIG ONE) We would NOT make a profit!
Even with these assumptions some of the business types said it couldn't be done. We need to be ready to help make this work. The easiest way to make a small fortune building airplanes is to start with a large one.
Hank

[mikerice]

Running a Taylorcraft Factory from my Arm Chair

Lets say I just bought a BUNCH of Taylorcraft tooling, and I'm pretty good with figuring out what I have, and how to make a part. (Big assumption, ask Univair)

Lets sell some parts to Taylorcraft owners for 100 bucks each. Materials and labor cost 40%, so I make $60 on each part I sell. (Big assumption, ask Wag Aero)

Now how many parts do I need to sell to stay open (break-even)?

I pay the rent and utilities (5000/mo) and one salary (5000/month) to answer phones, QA parts, package and ship parts, and maintain FAA approvals. (Can't be done with one person, due to FAA separation of duties, but maybe I work for free?).

Lets see, 10,000/mo divided by 60 bucks profit a part is 167 parts per month, every month to keep the doors open. That may be doable, with marketing expenses (not included) and a lot of orders every month from the Taylorcraft forum.

Lets assume there is no need to repay a loan for the tooling, pay materials and labor up front and that all necessary FAA approvals are in place. (Big assumption, ask Wells Fargo and the FAA).

I am a betting man, but I personally did not have 10,000 a month to see how good my assumptions and math are.

I give all the credit to the current owners and all the previous owners, back to C.G Taylor and Bill Piper who had the balls to pull out their wallets and give it a try.

[LostnSpace]

Re: Whispers of the North

Whenever I think of Taylorcraft trying to build airplanes, I keep thinking of Jim Richmond out in Yakima, WA. and how he started out tinkering with Super Cubs, repairing them, then working on upgrades thru STC's, then getting parts from Piper and building PA-18's, then having Piper tell him they think that is no longer a good idea, go away, and by then Jim has all the jigs for repair and building from scratch, so he complies and out comes the Top Cub, then years later he gets to thinking of an LSA aircraft and out comes the Sport Cub, but it took a long, long time. I wish the new Taylorcraft owners the best for the coming new year, whoever they may be, and I hope they introduce themselves to us sometime soon, gary

[Hank Jarrett]

Re: Whispers of the North

With the right business plan the factory CAN build new planes BUT if they do it wrong they will never survive. The key is to start by building the best profit PARTS first and using the existing infrastructure in the current suppliers pool to sub for what is already on the market. As subcontractors, the Wag Aeros, Univairs.....can preserve their piece of the market while cutting cost for manufacture of a complete plane. The WORST thing the factory could do is go into competition with companies that are not making enough profit to spit at already on Taylorcraft parts. All the subs will do is stop making the parts and sell their existing stock at a price just below the factory. Production then stops at the secondary manufacturers and the factory starves with ridiculous overhead and no parts sales. After the factory is dead we have to fight for years to show there is a market for the subs to start production again while we cannibalize planes to keep flying. Look at the last 50 years. This has happened SEVERAL TIMES!
The next step is to negotiate with the subs to either market factory made parts or make them themselves for sale to us and the factory. Once all of the parts needed are available you start to build new planes on a "you order it and we will build it" basis. The market is WAY to weak to have aircraft sitting on a ramp for sale. If you build a plane without a standing buyer you will LOOSE MONEY every day it sits for sale because your capital is tied up in a product with a very slim profit margin. In no time at all you are selling at a loss because of the loss of income on your investment in the plane. DON'T BUILD A PLANE UNLESS THERE IS SOMEONE STANDING THERE WITH CASH IN HAND BEFORE YOU START ASSEMBLY!!!!
A good first start is to bring in planes for restoration, but there is a real loss of trust for the factory because of what the past owners did. I would do something like that, but I would want to BE THERE when it was being done, and that is probably not a reasonable solution. The factory could buy basket cases and rebuild them, but again, that is tying up their financial resources until they have a buyer for the plane. Another profit center for the factory is to offer repair and major work for other types like covering and painting other tube and rag types. It keeps your labor force busy with profitable work and the more time between recovers by your labor force the lower the quality. The fabric guys need steady work so Taylorcraft has a reputation for only the BEST quality finishes. That takes practice. It may not make logical sense but a plane is judged by the quality of the paint. Ask any of our wives.
The last and most important step is to KEEP THE TRIBE INVOLVED. The more we know what is going on the more we will trust the new management. We EXPECT the factory to have problems. We WILL understand the problems, but we WILL NOT understand keeping the problems secret! We will be your greatest resource or fixing your problems. We WANT this to work. We are not just your customers, we are your sales force, your knowledge base and your family. You only bought the factory because we didn't get there first. We WANT YOU TO SUCCEED! Let us help.
Hank

[mohawktipi]

Re: Whispers of the North

Can't say that I disagree with what has been said so far but consider this. There are two paths to keeping Tcraft in the air, restoration and maintenance/upgrade.

Those wanting to do restorations, and keep as close as possible to the original, need a source for replacement parts. This niche may or may not be small. But the supply of existing or NOS stock is going down quickly and perhaps the factory could fill the void.

The second group of Tcraft owners (like me) are trying to "look" stock but upgrade to more modern equipment. Perhaps the factory could work on or consolidate STCs for the various models. This woukd allow for quick repairs or upgrades to keep us flying. Just my thoughts

Re: New airplane?!

With all due respect, I think the LAST thing the new company should do is build another airplane. There is no money in new general aviation airplanes anymore. period.

Parts is where the money is. And we all need parts to keep these airplanes going. I know I do.

I would loose a lot of faith in these new investors if they start building the F19 again. Especially if they put the effort into it before they get the parts inventory up and available. I'm tired of spending hours, days and weeks building dies and jigs to make a small part that should be available for a few dollars from the factory.

Talorcraft- What parts do we need? Take a look at the Univair and Wag Aero catalogs. Then make everything else. Stupid simple.

Ranting over.........
Sorry.

I need a Tylenol......

I pretty much agree with you.

Additionally consider this; more places making parts (Univair, Wag-Aero, Taylorcaft) just dimishes the profit and/or volume so it is more likely that all of them stop doing that business. The demand is not large.

If perhaps there is large demand for a part then one of the two existing suppliers are best suited to measure the demand and produce that part.

Another reality is that tailwheel airplane owners are cheap and often prefer to buy or make rather than support these companies that are making parts. Airplane parts are expensive.

If the foundation provided drawings that would help for make your own and PMA efforts too.

That's what I think.

Dave

[freightpilot27]

Wow , old 71T looks real good. I am going to push this new factory to get in gear and do the F-19 again for starters, all parts, then upgrade. Thank you for the U-tube presentation. bye Forrest

With all due respect, I think the LAST thing the new company should do is build another airplane. There is no money in new general aviation airplanes anymore. period.

Parts is where the money is. And we all need parts to keep these airplanes going. I know I do.

I would loose a lot of faith in these new investors if they start building the F19 again. Especially if they put the effort into it before they get the parts inventory up and available. I'm tired of spending hours, days and weeks building dies and jigs to make a small part that should be available for a few dollars from the factory.

Talorcraft- What parts do we need? Take a look at the Univair and Wag Aero catalogs. Then make everything else. Stupid simple.

Ranting over.........
Sorry.

I need a Tylenol......