WHAT IF (separated from Whispers of North)

[Pearson]

Re: Whispers of the North

Hey Hank,

I thought I was the only one that did that. I have met some great people from leaving a card on their airplane.

Re: Whispers of the North

I wasn't paying that much attention and this has become one of the worst hijacks of a thread we have done here! We drifted off on post 5 and it was actually a really good thread on flying in Alaska! Anyone know how to split the conversations apart and build a new thread for each? Might actually be easier to rename this one and restart the Alaska one at this point!ops:
Hank

LOL

yes you are exactly correct Hank!

apologies to all, I did my part here too !

Dave

[Hank Jarrett]

Re: Whispers of the North

I wasn't paying that much attention and this has become one of the worst hijacks of a thread we have done here! We drifted off on post 5 and it was actually a really good thread on flying in Alaska! Anyone know how to split the conversations apart and build a new thread for each? Might actually be easier to rename this one and restart the Alaska one at this point!ops:
Hank

[Hank Jarrett]

Re: Whispers of the North

Don't know about the rest of the Tribe, but I leave my card on every Taylorcraft I see. Most of the time it seems like I find out it's a plane of someone here, but occasionally I hit someone who never heard of us. The hard part with those is getting them to understand I DON'T wan to sell them something and I'm not some nut crawling out of the ramp grass (I let them find out I'm nuts slowly, so I don't scare them away).
I am on several aviation groups and believe me, this is the very best one for helpful, knowledgeable people. What some don't understand is NO ONE is getting paid to do this! Most everybody here has a real job to pay the bills (or are putting most of their time and effort into getting THEIR plane flying if they are retired). Our JOB isn't to jump in and answer someones question. That isn't just a problem here, it is in all groups. Newcomers ask a question, go for a cup of coffee, and are blown away that no one has posted an answer when they get back! We all did it at first, and some of us still do. It has taken me YEARS to get some answers, especially on some of the WW-I replica groups. Once you get an answer it seems like everyone comes out of the woodwork fighting over if the first one is right. Go ahead and ask any Sopwith Camel nut if PC-10 paint was green or brown! Those guys will argue for months over which SHADE is closest.
We do REALLY WELL here. New folks (and the rest of us too sometimes) need to remember that people like Forrest are running AIRPORTS and full time businesses! He kind of likes to go flying sometimes too. That's why he prioritizes answering the mail with family first, business next and foundation members third (speaking without knowing for sure but that would be MY priorities). That means a new guy may have to wait till the weekend (if the weather is too bad to fly) or even LONGER for an answer.
It's up to US to track down all of those owners (the FAA registry is a great place to start) and get them to join with us. The more of us there are as a group the better off we all will be.
Get some cards and keep your eyes open. It's really fun to find a new owner!
Hank

[Pearson]

Re: Whispers of the North

[QUOTE... most can't even get an email answered from there, never the less any sort of actual production of parts. It's a nice dream, but the workers of the organization here are too far spread and things go undone too often and .....[/QUOTE]

As a member of this forum, I enjoy hearing all the "inside" poop about what people are doing with their Taylorcrafts. I learn a lot here, and try to repay what I learn by offering suggestions when I can. This is a very interesting thread, but there is some basically flawed thinking going on here.

I meet Taylorcraft owners all the time, who have either never heard of this forum, or have heard of it, tried to get questions answered, and gave up after getting no response. I think the forum needs to take a good look at itself and ask, "are we really the voice of Taylorcraft owners". Sure the forum here represents a large number of owners. And we obviously have a voice; ie, the input offered to the FAA regarding the wings attach fitting AD and now the suggestions to the new factory.

But I think that we as a group need to keep an objective eye toward thinking we are it, as far as speaking for owners of Taylorcraft. I personally find it absolutely amazing that people own a Taylorcraft and have never even heard of this forum. If I were to buy a Fliginthropter Airplane, the first thing I would do before I even bought it would be to Google Fliginthropter. Yet I meet people all the time flying a Taylorcraft that thought the factory went out of business years ago, and haven't even thought of searching for a forum such as this one.

And don't think of this as just the forum helping these owners out. Who knows what untapped talent lies out there, just waiting for an opportunity to share their wealth of knowledge.

[Forrest Barber]

Re: Whispers of the North

It is their tooling. MAYBE! Just keep an eye on the situation. Mike Rice has jumped in and he has great insight along with Hank & many others. I will be issuing report to the Foundation Board and Regional Reps soon. Will share their comments.

[LostnSpace]

Re: Whispers of the North

NOW please check out www.sracompany.com and see what they do now:

"SRA is a service company focused on supporting the maquiladora industry. Having served many maquila plants, we are aware of the "High Quality Requirements" and take pride in meeting the needs of all concerned. SRA is a service company focused on supporting the automotive, electronical, electrical and plastic industries, located through out the U. S., Canada and the maquiladora & manufacturing industries. "

The maquiladoro industry is the method of $2.75 skilled labor with no duties either way. check it out with google.
Why go to China , the Czech Rebublic and all the other ones. At least I can fly my Taylorcraft to Brownsville or Mexico very easily

Looking at wekipedia I see this: A maquiladora or maquila is a factory that imports materials and equipment on a duty-free and tariff-free basis for assembly or manufacturing and then re-exports the assembled product, usually back to the originating country, do I get the sense of the tooling heading South?, gary

[N96337]

Re: Whispers of the North

The last thing they need to think of is building planes! That's already played out as a bottomless pit how many times?? The next thing they DON'T need to think of is the "foundation" buying and producing stuff... that isn't gonna be a good thing either... most can't even get an email answered from there, never the less any sort of actual production of parts. It's a nice dream, but the workers of the organization here are too far spread and things go undone too often and too long for me to ever envision anything getting done that way. Hopefully, the new owners will get into some small scale production of parts and be happy doing that...then down the road if things go right, they could expand their horizons just a bit at a time. An old and wise friend of mine once told me "let them FORCE you into business"........best advice I've ever gotten. I agree that their ominous lack of presence here on the forum is a negative. I'd be all over a "captive" audience, but who knows.
As far as all the hoopla of the Taylorcraft "tribe" or owners or whatever you want to call us, I don't see it being a huge market or benefit, or Univair, WagAero or the others would've been capitalizing on that already...they're not dumb by any means, and have the resources at hand, so if it was a biggie, I'd think they'd pounce on it.
I'm guessing I'll be building most of the parts I'll be needing.
JH

[Forrest Barber]

Re: Whispers of the North

This thread sure jumped, however I must have done a good thing when I mentioned build the F-19 ; make sure you understand that I meant ; that is AFTER all parts are being built again, a airplane is the "sum of its parts".
YES they have a list of the most needed parts.

NOW please check out www.sracompany.com and see what they do now:

"SRA is a service company focused on supporting the maquiladora industry. Having served many maquila plants, we are aware of the "High Quality Requirements" and take pride in meeting the needs of all concerned. SRA is a service company focused on supporting the automotive, electronical, electrical and plastic industries, located through out the U. S., Canada and the maquiladora & manufacturing industries. "

The maquiladoro industry is the method of $2.75 skilled labor with no duties either way. check it out with google.
Why go to China , the Czech Rebublic and all the other ones. At least I can fly my Taylorcraft to Brownsville or Mexico very easily

I have tried to open a line of communication, Perhaps they are out for a "Mexican minute".
See the latest TAYLORCRAFTER NEWSLETTER. Perhaps they are feeling out who to talk to on our side of the fence. Keep the comments coming to this thread and I am sure Bob or Rob or God can switch it to a new Thread under comments on the NEW FACTORY AQUISITION......

In the mean time ; HAPPY NEW YEAR ! I am off to the local nursing homes to check on my friends and relatives. Five funerals two weeks ago and two this week!!

[Hank Jarrett]

Re: Whispers of the North

No real estate value in the "Factory". Harry didn't leave any buildings or real property, only unpaid bills, so I don't see that as a worry. What I understand they bought is the "paper" making them the owners, the tooling and some parts with dubious ownership trails. I think the buyers bought it with a serious intent to build new airplanes and are quiet because they are now seeing how big a job this is. I am cautiously optimistic about them. I would rather hear nothing and assume they are actually looking at the job ahead than hear a bunch of promises and rosy BS that they are going to resurrect the golden age of light plane manufacturing.
We have lots of talent to help if they ask (even some true "rocket scientists" if they need it) and most of it is probably free. I am imagining they are trying to figure out what they have gotten themselves into right now.
Hank

If WE had bought it I would be seriously looking at working for Taylorcraft right now, most likely at no pay. I have a feeling they ARE in touch with some people in the tribe, but those folks are playing fairly close to the vest for now.

[RobertP]

Re: Whispers of the North

This all seems very negative to me! If it was happening in the UK I would say they were in it for the Real Estate value of the Factory site and 2 years down the line a housing estate would suddenly appear with houses at 150K each and a vague promise to the local Council to provide something for young First time buyers which never materialised! But there again I don't know how things work with you guys so I hope my mistrust of "Knights in shining armour" and "business interests" is not well founded!

One things for sure if they intend to make this work they will be in touch with the Forum soon and "no news is not good news!" after all making contact with your "on tap market" which are desperate for your product is not Rocket Science!

I wish them well for 2010 as long as they stick to their promises if not well --!

[Hank Jarrett]

Re: Whispers of the North

And one problem with the Gascolator gaskets example is, most of us would cut one out ourselves to save money, or just get it from Tractor Supply, where their customer base allows for economy of scale!
No market, no profit. No profit, no survival. I would start with bungees and anything consumable that I could convince everyone they should be changing out (NOT by creating a bogus AD!).
Hank

See? This is a TOUGH PROBLEM!

Reminds me of one of my first business plans. My professor said it didn't look like it could make a profit. I answered that I would be "Non-profit, but not on purpose". It was an aviation design company, and it didn't ever get off the ground. Good ideas don't necessarily make money (or even break even).

Re: Running a Taylorcraft Factory from my Arm Chair

Lets say I just bought a BUNCH of Taylorcraft tooling, and I'm pretty good with figuring out what I have, and how to make a part. (Big assumption, ask Univair)

Lets sell some parts to Taylorcraft owners for 100 bucks each. Materials and labor cost 40%, so I make $60 on each part I sell. (Big assumption, ask Wag Aero)

Now how many parts do I need to sell to stay open (break-even)?

I pay the rent and utilities (5000/mo) and one salary (5000/month) to answer phones, QA parts, package and ship parts, and maintain FAA approvals. (Can't be done with one person, due to FAA separation of duties, but maybe I work for free?).

Lets see, 10,000/mo divided by 60 bucks profit a part is 167 parts per month, every month to keep the doors open. That may be doable, with marketing expenses (not included) and a lot of orders every month from the Taylorcraft forum.

Lets assume there is no need to repay a loan for the tooling, pay materials and labor up front and that all necessary FAA approvals are in place. (Big assumption, ask Wells Fargo and the FAA).

I am a betting man, but I personally did not have 10,000 a month to see how good my assumptions and math are.

I give all the credit to the current owners and all the previous owners, back to C.G Taylor and Bill Piper who had the balls to pull out their wallets and give it a try.

Nice analysis Mike.

Then there's that pesky liability insurance.

Then there is the added complexity needing to sell not just 167 random part numbers per month but rather 167parts of a p/n that you have set up to produce.

I suspect that it would be great to sell 167 strut to spar attach fittings every month (they may be close to $100) for example.

But the demand is likely not that high so you have to make some tail wheel springs (for example) and that may still not get you to the needed minimum break even revenue of $10,000/month (profits would require $16,700/month = 167 parts x $100) so you have to keep adding part numbers to your "inventory" in order to acheive the desired revenue.

Every time you add a part number to the inventory the costs go up again. I suspect that the turnover rate for any one T-craft part is very low. Try to think of any one part that you replace once a year. There are something like 1800 airplanes (I think). If we can think of one part that is changed once per year then that part might sell 150 units per month.

Gasculator gaskets come to mind.

Not trying to be entirely negative here however the parts alone business looks marginal to me.

[Hank Jarrett]

Re: Whispers of the North

When we only want to make ONE, the tooling is pretty simple. I made my instrument panel from flat sheets of aluminum with a hammer and dolly. It also took MONTHS of tapping to do it. It has been years and my parrot still does a great imitation of the tapping sound (with the head bobbing to go with it).
I have done beading like on the 45 "D" frames with a hammer, a turned broom stick and a routed die, but it takes FOREVER and you waste a lot of aluminum learning the techniques. There is pretty much NOTHING on a Taylorcraft you can't make in a garage if you have the time and patience to learn. That has nothing to do with a factory making parts for sale. They have to make a profit. My 45 would be worth a FORTUNE if I could get my labor costs back out, and it is still a bare fuselage.
Hank

[mikerice]

Re: Whispers of the North

The problem as I see it, is the tooling storage costs. There is a large amount of steel tooling at the Factory for making all the parts for BC12D, F19 and F22 aircraft. Just moving and storing this stuff takes considerable space, and no matter how you cut it, that costs money. It just cannot be stored in a garage or three or four...

As Hank noted with the rear window frames, the piece is not too complex, but the beading requires a tool most of us don't have. I'll bet money the factory has it and the die to stamp the blank.

The rack to hold the templates to cut the aluminum blank, the tool to stamp it, and its shelving, the press to hold the tool, and parts bin to store the finished part, and already my garage is full!

I agree, that the new Factory will have to focus on parts that people will buy and are difficult to source elsewhere. My best wishes go out to the new owners for success in the New Year 2010.